Latvia’s Security Barometer: 3/2026 (mid-July to mid-October 2026)      

Latvia held its parliamentary elections on October 3. There was a very clear winner with Prime Minister Kulbergs’ party, the United List, gaining 41 seats in the 100 seat Saeima. The newly elected deputies will begin work on November 3 by which time it is likely that a new government will have been negotiated to receive parliamentary approval. 

Belarus raised its pressure with continuing weaponization of migration on the border with Latvia. Stray drones continued to trespass on the Latvian border, while a powerful summer storm revealed major holes in Latvia’s crisis preparedness. Despite Western warnings, a large-scale direct military attack on Latvia remains unlikely. But escalation of grey-zone attacks is very probable.    

Meanwhile, the development of mid-range and jet-powered drones has heralded major changes in the war in Ukraine. The ferocity of Russian attacks has increased as have Ukrainian civilian casualties. Sabotage in EU countries helping Ukraine is also increasing.   

The US has still not solved its problems with Iran, which has now realized the power of its ability to block the Hormuz and Bab al Mandab Straits.  

Read and download the English language report from Google, ResearchGate or Academia.edu.

Iepazīstieties ar Latvijas drošības barometru 3/2026 latviešu valodā Google, ResearchGate vai Academia.edu. 

Apskats par šo publikāciju portālā LSM.lv.